How Race Prediction Works

Race prediction is based on the principle that performance across different race distances follows specific patterns. Our calculator uses several well-established mathematical models:

• Riegel Formula: The most widely used model, developed by Peter Riegel. It uses a fatigue factor of 1.06 and is considered accurate for most runners across a wide range of distances.
• Cameron Formula: Developed by Dave Cameron, this model tends to be more accurate for longer distances like marathons and ultramarathons.
• Purdy Points: A sophisticated system that normalizes performances across different distances, originally created for track events but adapted for road racing.

Important Considerations

• Predictions are most accurate when based on recent race performances (within the last 3-6 months)
• The closer the known distance is to the target distance, the more accurate the prediction
• Predictions assume similar training, course conditions, and weather between races
• Most predictions are more accurate for experienced runners with consistent training
• For distances beyond the marathon, predictions tend to be less reliable due to other factors affecting performance

Using Predictions for Training

Race predictions can help you:

• Set realistic race goals based on your current fitness
• Establish appropriate training paces for various workouts
• Develop effective race strategies and pacing plans
• Measure your fitness improvements over time by comparing predictions